Gold firmed on Monday, as signs that China’s economic recovery was gaining traction could boost demand for commodities, but prices could be capped by worries about the debt crisis in Cyprus and the weakness of the euro versus the US dollar. Tension in the Korean peninsula has yet to trigger a rush in purchases from investors in Asia, but a full-scale conflict between the two Koreas could potentially boost gold’s safe-haven appeal in times of uncertainty.
Gold hit an intraday high of $1,600.81 an ounce and stood at $1,597.76 by 0647 GMT, up $1.59. The precious metal ended the quarter down around 4 percent after stock markets surged and the euro stayed weak against the dollar. Gold rallied to a 1-month high in March on concerns about fiscal stability in Europe after the European Union gave Cyprus an ultimatum to raise billions of euros it needs to clinch a bailout deal or face a likely exit from the currency zone.
“We are in an uncertain market. Normally a strong PMI data from China would tend to draw investors towards stocks and not support gold prices, but this time we see a reverse. The North Korea tension is adding to the market uncertainty,” said Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd. “We see physical buying by the retail investors during price dips and this helped to support prices, which should go up above $1,600. If everything goes well, it seems like gold could move on to a higher trading range. Gold should test $1,620.”
Premiums for gold bars were largely unchanged in Singapore at 1.20 to $1.50 to the spot prices in London. Stronger domestic demand helped China’s factory activity to rebound in March, with new orders up sharply in a sign the underlying economic recovery is strong enough to weather any risks from patchy export performance, surveys showed on Monday.
Tokyo gold futures gave up early gains and investors closely watched developments on the Korean peninsula after South Korean President said the country would strike back if the North stages any attack on its territory.
Tensions have been high since the North’s young new leader, Kim Jong-un, ordered a nuclear weapons test in February, breaching UN sanctions and ignoring warnings from North Korea’s closest ally, China, not to do so. “There was some early buying on TOCOM. It may be related to Korea, but nobody talks about it here,” said a dealer in Tokyo. “Some places are still closed for holidays, so the market is quiet and the volume is thin, which exaggerates movements.”
The euro slipped to approach a four-month low on concerns about the spillover from Cyprus’ bailout terms, while the Australian dollar was tripped up after data showed a slower than expected rebound in Chinese factory activity in March. Financial markets in UK, Australia, Hong Kong and Europe are still closed for Easter holidays.
US gold futures for June were at $1,598.40 an ounce, up $2.70. Hedge funds and money managers sharply raised bearish bets on copper and trimmed net long positions in gold and silver futures and options in the week to March 26, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
