The slow start of exports from South America’s new soyabean crop in March and April may compel China to buy more US soyabeans in coming weeks, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. “Insufficient arrivals of South American soyabeans at Chinese ports could result in a few emergency purchases of soyabeans in the United States for prompt shipment in the next few weeks, which could make the supply tightness in the US old crop even more critical,” Oil World said.
“Secondly, China is likely to step up purchases of other oilseeds, primarily rapeseed/canola, but available supplies at current export locations are limited.” Big Argentine and Brazilian harvests are needed in early 2013 to relieve the tight global soyabean market after the small US crop in 2012. But new crop exports from leading exporter Brazil have been disappointing in past weeks as the country’s ports struggle to cope with the huge shipments ordered by global soyabean consumers.
South American soyabean shipments are expanding this month, but actual arrivals in China in April and May, after considering shipping time, are likely to be below China’s needs, despite uncertainty caused by an outbreak of bird flu, Oil World said. There are fears that if China undertakes a big programme to cull poultry to combat bird flu, this would cut its need for animal feed and its demand for soyabeans.
China’s soyabean imports for the three months to end-April are likely to be down 25 percent on the year to just 10.3 million tonnes, compelling the country to run down stocks, Oil World said. “We assume that the seasonal recovery in Brazilian and Argentine soyabean exports in April will be insufficient to satisfy Chinese and world import requirements,” Oil World said. China may also be compelled to import more soyaoil, palm oil and soyameal to compensate for the soyabean imports, it said.